The Trade Confidence Outlook results also underline the urgency for the EU Reset to deliver, six years on from Brexit.
The Insights Unit found that overall, 21 per cent of exporters reported an increase in export sales, while 28 per cent reported a fall, and 50 per cent reported no change.
Micro-exporters with fewer than 10 employees are faring worse – only 17 per cent reported increased export orders in Q4 (16 per cent in Q3), 30 per cent reported a fall, and 53 per cent reported no change.
In contrast, 39 per cent of large exporters, with more than 250 staff, saw a boost in overseas orders (42 per cent in Q3), 14 per cent reported a decrease, and 47 per cent said they’d seen no change.
This differs considerably from the picture in Q2 2018 when 31 per cent of all firms saw increased orders (21 per cent in Q4 2025), 55 per cent no change (50 per cent in Q4 2025) and 14 per cent a decrease (28 per cent Q4 in 2025).
Since Q2 2018 the number of firms reporting increased orders has never been higher than 28 per cent, not even when the global economy re-opened after the pandemic. Since Q3 of 2024 it has averaged just 22 per cent.
Tim Cooper-Cocks, international trade adviser at the Coventry and Warwickshire Chamber of Commerce, said: “For businesses across Coventry and Warwickshire, particularly SMEs in manufacturing, professional services and advanced engineering, exporting has become significantly harder over the past seven years.
“Many firms locally have the capability and ambition to grow overseas, but rising trade friction, costs and complexity are holding them back.
“A stronger UK-EU trading relationship, alongside practical support on customs, regulation and market access, would make a real difference to exporters in our region in 2026 and beyond.
“When businesses do look to trade overseas, we see fantastic results not only for them but for the regional economy and we have some great examples of that on the back of the support we’ve given. It’s just vitally important that as many barriers are removed as possible.”
William Bain, Head of Trade Policy at the BCC, said: “For smaller businesses, the last seven years have been some of the most challenging ever to try and grow exports.
“Things started to take a turn for the worse as the trade implications of Brexit became clear in 2018 and they have been in the doldrums ever since.
“A succession of further shocks on top of that – from Covid, wars, supply chain disruption and tariffs – have turned exporting into an uphill slog where the path keeps getting steeper.
“The Prime Minister’s trip to China and the real progress made on trade deals with the US, EU and India last year show the Government understands the difficulties.
“But we need to see a real focus in 2026 on delivering what has been agreed. The BCC’s EU reset report sets out very clearly the big issues that must be tackled before the year is out.”
The BCC’s EU reset report has 25 recommendations to improve UK-EU trade in the short, medium and long-term.
Its top five proposals for discussions in 2026 are:
- Negotiate a deep SPS (animal and plant products) agreement to remove export health certificates
- Finalise UK and EU Emissions Trading Scheme linkage to exempt goods from Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms
- Establish a youth mobility scheme
- Secure full UK participation in SAFE – the EU’s Defence Finance Initiative
- Enhance VAT cooperation and customs simplification to reduce trade costs
For more information on overseas trade, contact the Chamber on 024 7665 4321.
